Question 1

How accurate is the 2026 cherry blossom forecast right now?

Accepted Answer

As of February 17, 2026, forecast confidence is around 80%, which usually means a ±3 to ±4 day range. Accuracy will improve through March as real bud observations and short-range temperature models are added.

Question 2

When should I revisit this page for updates?

Accepted Answer

From now to the end of February, once per week is enough. From March onward, checking twice per week is better, and once blooms begin in your destination city, daily checks help for final timing and weather shifts.

Question 3

What is the difference between first bloom and peak bloom?

Accepted Answer

First bloom means a few reference flowers have opened on the sample tree. Peak bloom means roughly 80% of flowers are open and the landscape looks full. For most travelers, peak bloom is the target window for best visuals.

Question 4

If my dates miss peak by a few days, is the trip still worth it?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The late-bloom and petal-fall phase is still visually strong, often with fewer crowds. You can also shift to higher elevation or northern cities where bloom is later, such as Takayama, Tohoku, or Hokkaido.

Question 5

How long does peak bloom usually last?

Accepted Answer

In stable weather, peak conditions often hold for about 5-7 days. The wider photogenic window is closer to 10-14 days when you include pre-peak and petal-fall stages.

Question 6

Why can forecasts change even a few weeks before bloom?

Accepted Answer

Late winter and early spring temperature swings can accelerate or delay bloom. Rain and wind also affect petal longevity. Forecast revisions are normal and reflect improved data, not model failure.

Question 7

What are the best times of day for viewing and photography?

Accepted Answer

Early morning around 6:00-8:00 AM is best for low crowds and soft light. Night illumination windows can also be excellent and often calmer than midday. Midday tends to be the busiest and least flattering light.

Question 8

Do I need to book April travel far in advance?

Accepted Answer

If your trip depends on Tokyo/Kyoto peak bloom, booking flights and hotels 4-6 months ahead remains the safest approach. Last-minute planning is possible but usually means higher prices or less convenient locations.

Question 9

Can I track bloom status city by city?

Accepted Answer

Yes. This page provides a city-level forecast grid and a regional timeline slider. For final decisions, combine this with local weather checks during the two weeks before your travel date.

Question 10

What if heavy rain is forecast during peak bloom?

Accepted Answer

Light rain usually has limited impact. Multi-day heavy rain or strong wind can shorten the bloom window quickly. In that case, prioritize early slots, move north/elevation, and include indoor backup plans.

Japan Cherry Blossom Forecast 2026

Forecast Confidence

2026 Bloom Forecast Map

Timeline Slider

Kanto Detail

Top Cities Detailed Forecast

Tokyo

Top viewing spots

Live 7-day weather: Tokyo

Sakura Front Tracker (Sakura Zensen)

2026 Front Timeline

Current Front Position

Forecast Methodology

Accuracy timeline

Historical Trend Snapshot (Tokyo)

2020-2026 Bloom Shift

Climate signal summary

Planning Tools

Bloom Probability Calculator

Cherry Blossom Budget Calculator

Cherry Blossom Forecast FAQ

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