Japan Fall Foliage Tracker 2026
Track Japan's autumn transformation from Hokkaido's first colors in September to Kyushu's late-season foliage in December. This tracker is designed for timing-critical route planning.
Live Foliage Status (Feb 17, 2026)
Winter mode🔴 Off-season regions: 7
🟢 Active peak regions: 0
📅 Next season: Sept 15 - Dec 10, 2026
⏰ Days until first colors: 210
🥇 First colors: Hokkaido (Sep 15)
🌟 Broad peak season: October 20 - November 20, 2026
🍂 Late fallback: Kyushu (into Dec 15)
Forecast Confidence
Forecast confidence is 0% before September updates and rises as real observations accumulate.
Last updated: February 17, 2026, 10:00 AM JST
Next update: September 1, 2026
Full live model updates start September 2026 (target range ±5 days by October).
Season checkpoints
- • Sep 1: preseason release (about ±5-7 days)
- • Oct 1: refined regional forecast (about ±3-5 days)
- • Nov 1: high-confidence phase (about ±2-3 days)
Interactive Fall Foliage Map
Use timeline + mode switch to inspect regional progression from September through December.
Timeline Slider
Drag across 2026 to preview expected stage shifts.
Focus region: Kansai (Kyoto/Osaka)
Stage now: Off-season
Mode: forecast
Color Legend
Kansai (Kyoto/Osaka) Detail
Confidence 75%Core peak season with highest demand and best temple scenes.
First colors
2026-11-01
Peak window
2026-11-15 to 2026-11-30
Finished by
2026-12-10
Top spots
Kyoto Temples · Nara Park · Osaka Castle · Mount Koya
Map snapshot on selected date
Off-season: 7
Progressing: 0
Peak: 0
Falling: 0
Finished: 0
Green/Starting: 0
Top Destinations Deep Dive
Compare timing, weekly progression, and practical on-the-ground strategy for top fall foliage spots.
Kyoto Temples
Kansai · Rank #1
First colors
November 1-5, 2026
Peak window
November 15-30, 2026
Optimal visit
November 18-25, 2026
Confidence
85%
Ancient temple architecture framed by intense red maples and night illuminations. The strongest iconic autumn composition in Japan.
Stay strategy
- • Higashiyama for walkable temples
- • Kyoto Station for transit convenience
- • Book 4-6 months ahead
Transport strategy
- • Kyoto Bus Day Pass
- • First train strategy
- • Avoid weekend midday transfers
Photo and budget snapshot
3-day budget estimate: $800
- • Use tripod for night illuminations
- • Target rain-cleared mornings
- • Shoot bridge viewpoints first
Weekly progression
Nov 1-7
Color: 20-30% (early)
Temp: 54-63°F (12-17°C)
Photo score: ★★★★★
Tip: Good for lighter crowds, but not fully colored yet.
Nov 8-14
Color: 50-70% (building)
Temp: 50-59°F (10-15°C)
Photo score: ★★★★★
Tip: Strong transition week with good color variety.
Nov 15-21
Color: 80-95% (peak)
Temp: 48-57°F (9-14°C)
Photo score: ★★★★★
Tip: Prime week. Arrive before 6:30 AM at flagship temples.
Nov 22-28
Color: 75-90% (peak)
Temp: 45-54°F (7-12°C)
Photo score: ★★★★★
Tip: Still excellent, but weekends become extremely dense.
Nov 29-Dec 5
Color: 40-60% (late)
Temp: 43-52°F (6-11°C)
Photo score: ★★★★★
Tip: Leaf carpet scenes improve as crowds begin to soften.
Top spots
Tofuku-ji
Peak: Nov 15-25
Crowd: Extremely High
Entry: JPY 600
Best time: 6:00-7:30 AM
Highlight: Tsutenkyo Bridge maple corridor
Eikando
Peak: Nov 15-28
Crowd: Very High
Entry: JPY 600 (day) / JPY 1,000 (night)
Best time: Early morning or after 8:00 PM
Highlight: Pagoda + illuminated maple slopes
Kiyomizu-dera
Peak: Nov 18-30
Crowd: Extremely High
Entry: JPY 400
Best time: 6:00 AM or night slots
Highlight: Temple deck with city + foliage backdrop
Arashiyama
Peak: Nov 15-28
Crowd: Extremely High
Entry: Free area + paid temples
Best time: 6:30-8:00 AM
Highlight: Togetsukyo Bridge and mountain gradient
Also on the watchlist
#9 Mount Fuji Area · #10 Takayama · #11-20 Other Popular Spots: Arashiyama, Miyajima, Korakuen, Ritsurin, Kumamoto Castle, Dazaifu, Mount Koya, Kamakura, Jozankei, Naruko Gorge
Autumn Colors Front Tracker (Koyo Zensen)
Follow the southward progression from Hokkaido in September to Kyushu in December.
2026 Front Timeline
2026-09-15 · Hokkaido (Daisetsuzan)
First major colors of the season
2026-10-01 · Tohoku (Oirase)
Northern Honshu progression begins
2026-10-15 · Chubu (Kamikochi)
Central mountain peak phase
2026-11-01 · Kanto (Nikko)
Kanto early peak window starts
2026-11-15 · Kansai (Kyoto)
National peak demand period
2026-11-20 · Chugoku/Shikoku
Western region peak layer
2026-12-01 · Kyushu
Late season closeout window
Current Front Position
Reference date: Feb 17, 2026.
Season has not started yet. Tracker remains in off-season mode.
Next stop: Hokkaido (Daisetsuzan) (2026-09-15)
North to South Ultimate (21 days)
Hokkaido → Tohoku → Chubu → Kanto → Kansai
Best full-season coverage if schedule is flexible.
$4,500-6,000 (mid-range)
Peak Season Focus (10-14 days)
Nikko → Hakone → Tokyo → Kyoto
High hit-rate route for first-time autumn travelers.
$2,500-3,500 (mid-range)
Budget Extended (28 days)
Hokkaido → Tohoku → Kanto → Kansai (slow pace)
Long-stay strategy with lower daily pressure.
$2,800-3,500 (budget)
Live Color Reports (Archive Mode)
Community reports are active during season. Off-season view currently shows high-signal 2025 archive entries.
🔵 Status: Off-season. First live reports expected around September 15, 2026.
📍 Tofuku-ji Temple, Kyoto
November 18, 2025 (Archive) · @kyoto_autumn_hunter
Status: Peak (90% color)
Weather: Sunny, 55°F
Crowd: Extremely high
“Stunning reds before 7 AM. By 8 AM movement slowed heavily.”
👍 1247 helpful · 💬 89 comments
📍 Oirase Gorge, Aomori
October 15, 2025 (Archive) · @tohoku_explorer
Status: Peak (85% color)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F
Crowd: Moderate
“Excellent yellow-orange mix and clean stream reflections.”
👍 892 helpful · 💬 56 comments
📍 Lake Chuzenji, Nikko
November 5, 2025 (Archive) · @koyo_map_jp
Status: Near Peak (75% color)
Weather: Clear, 46°F
Crowd: High
“Best light from 8:00-9:30 AM. Wind increased after noon.”
👍 611 helpful · 💬 34 comments
Forecast Methodology
This tracker combines official agencies, historical patterns, and satellite-supported regional validation.
Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC)
Primary national forecast source with long-term reference records.
Typically within ±5 days during active season.
Weathernews
High-frequency field observation network across destinations.
Strong real-time correction value during peak weeks.
Japan Weather Association
Regionalized projection useful for timing cross-check.
Reliable for broad windows and regional ordering.
Satellite NDVI Signals
Vegetation index trend used to validate progression speed.
Best for macro trend direction, not exact day-level peaks.
Key forecast factors
- • Summer heat accumulation (June-August)
- • Autumn cooling speed (September-November)
- • First frost timing by elevation
- • Rainfall and wind events that accelerate leaf fall
- • Daylight and cloud cover impact on color vibrancy
Accuracy curve
Color stage guide
Green (0-10%)
Pre-season, chlorophyll dominant
Starting (10-30%)
Initial yellow signals
Progressing (30-60%)
Mixed yellow-orange-red
Near Peak (60-80%)
Strong color development
Peak (80-95%)
Best viewing window
Falling (95-100%)
Leaf drop accelerates
Fall foliage is generally less deterministic than cherry blossom timing. Treat day-level predictions as guidance, not guarantees.
Historical Data & Trends (Kyoto)
Long-range records show moderate year-to-year variability with occasional late-season outliers.
2015-2026 Peak Date Variance
+1 days vs long-term average
+5 days vs long-term average
-1 days vs long-term average
+3 days vs long-term average
Baseline vs long-term average
+8 days vs long-term average
+2 days vs long-term average
+4 days vs long-term average
+1 days vs long-term average
-1 days vs long-term average
+3 days vs long-term average
+1 days vs long-term average
Trend summary
- • Kyoto average peak: around Nov 19 (recent decade)
- • Earliest in this dataset: Nov 16 (2017/2024)
- • Latest outlier: Nov 25 (2020 warm autumn)
- • Typical operational range: ±5 days
- • Peak duration usually lasts 10-12 days under stable weather
Front progression speed
- Hokkaido → Tohoku: about 15 days
- Tohoku → Chubu: about 14 days
- Chubu → Kanto/Kansai: about 14-16 days
- Kansai → Kyushu: about 16 days
Planning Tools
Use practical calculators for dates, probability, itinerary shape, crowd pressure, and total trip budget.
Perfect Dates Finder
Fast recommendation based on your priority and pace.
Recommended window: Nov 15-25, 2026
Highest broad overlap with iconic peak windows in Kansai and late Kanto.
Strategy: Build one late-region fallback. Pace: moderate.
Color Probability Calculator
Check whether your fixed dates overlap with likely color windows.
Regions to evaluate
Overall probability: 95%
Kansai (Kyoto/Osaka): 95%
Peak overlap likely (2026-11-15 to 2026-11-30)
Kanto (Tokyo Area): 95%
Peak overlap likely (2026-11-15 to 2026-11-30)
Itinerary Generator
Pick a route frame and use it as your planning baseline.
14-Day High Coverage Route
- • Day 1-3 Tohoku
- • Day 4-6 Nikko/Hakone
- • Day 7-9 Tokyo
- • Day 10-14 Kyoto/Nara
Estimated cost: $3,600 (mid-range)
Color probability: 97%
Budget Calculator
Quick 2026 estimate based on trip length and comfort level.
Stay: $1,900
Food: $1,600
Transport: $560
Attractions: $560
Flights: $1,960
JR Pass: $560
Contingency: $370
Total estimate: $7,510
Approx. $376 per person/day
Crowd Heatmap (November 2026)
Week 1 (Nov 1-7)
Week 2 (Nov 8-14)
Week 3 (Nov 15-21)
Week 4 (Nov 22-28)
Fall Foliage Forecast FAQ
Direct answers to common timing and planning questions for 2026 koyo travel.
Core update cycle begins on September 1, 2026. Before that, this page shows preseason planning windows and historical guidance rather than live color progression.
Related Guides & Resources
Companion guides, official forecast channels, and one-click download assets.
November in Japan Guide
Month-specific planning around temple illuminations and koyo routes.
Open guideBest Time to Visit Japan (Main Guide)
Compare all months by weather, crowds, and budget fit.
Open guideDownload Center
All download buttons map to files in `public/downloads` and are ready to ship.
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Last Updated: February 17, 2026, 10:00 AM JST
Next Update: September 1, 2026
Current Confidence: 0% (preseason)
Forecasts are planning guidance only. Actual color timing and intensity vary with weather, wind, and local elevation.